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The Pigskin Prognosticator On Alabama-Clemson Winner (And Why)

January 5, 2017 by kevinwilkerson Leave a Comment

Crimson Tide Goes For 17 National Championship & Lane Kiffin Doesn’t Matter

Alabama football Nick Saban
Nick Saban leads Alabama football into a modern sports dynasty. Photo: WSJ.com

By Kevin Wilkerson, PubClub.com College Football Blogger

After all the predictions, polls and playoff positioning, the college football season comes down to the two best teams, Alabama and Clemson.

This has been a good, tho not dramatically great, season, like 2015. There was no dropped-punt-turned-into-a-touchdown in a key rivalry game (Michigan-Michigan State), no whacky behind-the-back-blind-pass to create a wild upset (Arkansas over Ole Miss) and few dramatic last-second field goals for big upsets. One miss actually saved Clemson while a made one started the crumbling of Michigan’s season.

Every conference was down and the vaunted Big 10 proved it was mostly a mirage, many of its top-tier teams unable to compete with the speed and athleticism of the Southern schools. There were a lot of two- and three-loss teams who were unimpressive early but rallied late, chief among them Penn State and USC which gave us a Rose Bowl game to remember.

And now we head into the final game, the National Championship, featuring a rematch of the two teams that provided such as dramatic game last year. Will it be as good as anticipated or, as is the case in so many Hollywood sequels, a dud? The Pigskin Prognosticator has the answer!

Monday, Jan. 9

ALABAMA vs. CLEMSON (5 p.m., ESPN)

The Pachyderms stomp into Tampa looking to chase away the same big cats they eventually conquered last year and are certainly equipped to continue to stand on top of the mountain. They have stars – as in 5-star recruits – at every skill position on offense and a defense that not just smothers opponents but grinds the knife in the back by turning turnovers into touchdowns.

Alabama has an incredible 15 “N.O.T.”s this year. That’s a term that was created just for Bama to mean “Non Offensive Touchdowns” and it is a defining characteristic of this team.

The Tigers are stepping into this herd but have one thing successful predators need: they are not intimidated. They played so close last year – so tantalizingly close – that they are actually liking their chops to go on the attack

But, as U-Dub fans who put up all those “We Want Bama” signs all year long found out, be careful what you wish for when it comes to playing Alabama. Clemson was so “on” last year that everyone expected it to step onto the field and roar through the schedule, but it struggled until it finally lost. Deshaun Watson played out of his mind in last year’s championship game, threading the ball between defenders like a seamstress.

It made Clemson better than it was, but can he do it again? Is he putting too much pressure on himself because he so badly wants to win the championship?

Watson is the key to the game. If he’s “on” again, Clemson has a real shot at winning. Then the pressure switches to the other quarterback, cool-under-fire true freshman Jalen Hurts. No doubt, Hurts will have to make some downfield plays and accuracy on anything past mid-range throws has been about his only weakness this year. The media is making a big deal about Lame Kiffin being shown the door by Nick Saban but that’s just opening the door for them to take stabs at Kiffin and try and create a chink in Saban’s Alabama armor.

Alabama fans are actually a bit relieved. No more jet sweeps on the goal line, no more possessions wasted because of three straight bubble screens, both trademarks of Kiffin’s play calling that had Bama fans gong to Twitter with such frustration they even created a hashtag: #runthedamnball.” 

Ohio State tried exclusively to go wide against Clemson and got shut out. Bama needs to ram the ball up the middle and dictate the game, as well as keep the ball out of Waton’s hands.

One interesting thing for casual fans to watch is how both teams utilize the no-huddle offense. This doesn’t necessarily mean hurry-up or spread; it’s the evolution of the game.

A team will line up then the quarterback will look to the sideline. He’s getting an adjusted play based on the defense’s alignment. And watch the other side, too; Bama’s defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs all look to their position coaches for calls, and substitutions come in at precise moments that make it all but impossible for the offene to adjust to the changes. Alabama has this down to a science and it’s a very interesting part of the game to watch.

All that being said here’s what is going to happen: Clemson will put up a heck of a fight, scratching and clawing like a desperate animal going for it last meal. Watson will be more “on” than “off” and neutral fans looking for a good game will be thrilled. But in the end, Alabama simply has too many ways to win – remember the “N.O.T.s” – and a coach who will have his team prepared for everything the Tigers throw at them.

This will be Alabama’s 17th National Championship, dating back to 1925, and its fourth in the last seven years. Saban arrived at the Capstone 10 years ago nearly to the day and not has just restored the tradition of the program but made it dominant. Winner: Alabama

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